Saturday, August 12, 2006

Israel's first war loss

The terrorist wankers in Hezbollah and their supporters claimed, after the 2000 Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, that the Hez had forced Israel out, had defeated the IDF.

Bunko, I thought. Regardless of the wisdom or inhumanity of the war, Israel left on its own terms. The IDF was not defeated.

The '48 war was a victory.
The '56 attack on Egypt was an adventure.
The '67 war was a victory.
The '73 war was a victory.
The '82-2000 war was a draw.

The IDF has never been defeated.

Until 2006.

Israel defeated the IDF by overreacting, and by setting victory conditions which it could not achieve. And the Hez helped too, by spending six years buildings tunnels, bunkers, laying in rockets, and -- apparently -- training with Iranian instructors. The training has helped them kill quite a few IDF soldiers in ground combat.

They've also mastered Israeli psychology, Western media campaigns, and timing. They seized on Israel's weakness at the top after Sharon's stroke. Sharon may have been a mean old bird, but as an elder statesman with experience, he might have had enough bile left in him to show some restraint after the capture of one IDF soldier by Hamas and two by the Hez (in a cross-border tunneling raid that was masterful). I mean the nasty kind of restraint, the viscous, angry kind that bides its time and prepares revenge -- instead of sending everybody charging into the enemy's trap, while you run around waving your underpants in a circle over your head the way Olmert has.

The Hez were ready, but Israel helped set up the IDF for its first defeat. It defined victory as weakening the Hez (a vague goal, easy to finesse in the media even if you substantially strengthened the Hez, as Israel has) and the end of Hez ability to hit Israel with missiles. Olmert set an extremely high bar by rejecting a ceasefire, declaring "...we will not give up on our goal to live a life free of terror."

Free of terror? Set terms like that and you've lost from the outset.

And Bush helped too, by scuttling talk of a ceasefire, having Condi say it wouldn't make sense until the ground was laid for a lasting peace (meaning, until Israel had defeated the Hez). Apparently, his people didn't see that this was a no-win situation for Israel. That's not surprising, given that these are the same people who think we can win in Iraq.

Lebanon's infrastructure and economy are destroyed, 600,000 people are displaced (no likely Hez recruits there!), and Hezbollah laughs gleefully while Isreal willingly paints itself as a war machine and oppressor with the blood of innocent civilians.

Now that the unwelcome reality of Israel's defeat has set in, Israel and the US are begging for a ceasefire. But why should the Hez give it to them? The Hez will dictate the terms.

Now the whining that the Hez launch rockets from civilian areas, using civilians as shields, will peak. The "No one expected that" excuse will be floated, even though this is a standard guerilla/terrorist tactic. Everybody knew it. The Hez were just praying for opponents weak-minded enough to fall for it. Enter Ehud Olmert and little George Bush.

The Hez hit the jackpot. It's a sad day for Israel and Lebanon.
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