Thursday, January 04, 2007

The Somalia stuation should be interesting. The Islamist guys currently being routed by Ethiopia have presumedly got a potential for insurgency after their last redoubt is overrun. Iraq is not the first insurgency ever, but it is the latest success. So the Islamists may model on that. In Somalia, we may run an occupation by proxy. The payoff may be that we greenlight Ethiopia to try to seize a port from Eritrea (good luck!). The ultimate outcome in Somalia looks murky. It could turn out like Iraq, where the bad guys win. Or, if Ethopia wins, and stabilizes Somalia, then it turns out like Iraq, where we handed control of the country to a neighbor.
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